New Zealand Election Opinion Poll Predictions Survey Results 2017

Last Modified: September 22, 2017 at 6:32 pm

New Zealand Election Opinion Poll Predictions Survey Results 2017

New Zealand Election Opinion Poll 2017 Result Schedule

New Zealand National Party Surges to Poll Lead Ahead of Election  

New Zealand’s ruling National Party surged back into the lead over the main opposition Labour Party in an opinion poll published three days before a general election.

Various organisations have released opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research poll monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News/Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) have discontinued their poll since the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date, but are typically 800-1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.
The current Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The Prime Minister scheduled the 2017 New Zealand general election for Saturday 23 September 2017

New Zealand’s currency jumped more than half a U.S. cent after the poll result. It bought 73.69 U.S. cents at 6:15 p.m. in Wellington from 73.13 cents beforehand.

New Zealand Election Opinion Poll  2017

According to latest Polls National Party is ahead of Labour.

Poll Date National Labour
One News Colmar Brunton

 

 

 

9–13 Sep 2017 40 44
Newshub Reid Research 13–20 Sep 2017 45.8 37.3
One News Colmar Brunton 15–19 Sep 2017 46 37

 

New Zealand General Parliamentary election Preferred PM

Poll Date Bill English Jacinda Ardern
ne News Colmar Brunton

9–13 Sep 2017 32 34
Newshub Reid Research 13–20 Sep 2017 34.7 29.6
One News Colmar Brunton 15–19 Sep 2017 37 31

New Zealand general election, 2017 

  • The 2017 New Zealand general election will take place on Saturday 23 September 2017 to determine the membership of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. The previous parliament was elected on 20 September 2014 and was set to expire on 10 October 2017 if not dissolved earlier. It was dissolved on 22 August 2017.
  • Voters will elect at least 120 members to the House of Representatives, with 71 electorate members and 49 list members. New Zealand uses the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system, which gives voters two votes: one for a political party and one for their local electorate MP. Parties receive seats in Parliament in proportion to their party vote share; seat are filled firstly by winning electorate candidates and secondly by candidates on the party's list. Extra seats may be added to the house where there is an overhang, caused by a party winning more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote.
  • The centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Bill English, has governed since 2008 in a minority government with confidence and supply from the Maori, ACT and United Future parties. The main opposition parties to the National government are Labour (the official opposition), led by Jacinda Ardern, the Green Party, and New Zealand First. It will be the first election for Bill English as incumbent Prime Minister, having replaced John Key on 12 December 2016.

Electoral system  

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote).

Political parties receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive; a party must gain 5% of the total party vote or win one electorate to be entitled to receive seats.

71 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the "first past the post" method (i.e., most votes wins). The remaining 49 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.

The 2014 election saw a one-seat overhang where Peter Dunne won the Ohariu electorate when his United Future Party was entitled to zero seats under the party vote.

 

New Zealand Election Opinion Poll 2017 Result Schedule

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