Australia latest opinion poll, Newspoll data, Turnbull Government, Labor , Labor coalition ,ausvotes2016,election2016,Bill Shorten,Malcolm Turnbull,seats in doubt,predict swing
‘The Turnbull Government is facing the prospect of losing 10 seats in NSW, six in Queensland and three in Western Australia, with a significant slump in support in the key election battlegrounds.’
The Australian headlined a 6% swing against the government according to its own Newspoll data on 30 May.
I wrote this piece the day before [Sunday 29 May], without seeing the Newspoll data. Then in Monday’s Fairfax papers we also saw confirmation that the coalition is in trouble. James Massola wrote that the LNP is likely to lose at least a dozen seats and maybe even more.
‘Political strategists for both major parties believe the Coalition is on track to lose about 12 seats at the July 2 poll, slashing Malcolm Turnbull’s buffer in the Parliament but returning his government with a reduced second-term majority.’
A state by state breakdown
For example, Labor thinks 11 seats in Queensland are in play, but to others the margins in some seem insurmountable. For example, it would take an almost unachievable 6.7% swing to unseat Immigration Minister (and part-time potato model) Peter Dutton in Dickson. But some plucky voters have a strategy to help make it happen on polling day.
The ALP holds a substantial lead on a 2PP basis, 57.5% to the coalition’s 42.5%.The figures in Victoria seem to mirror what’s happening in Tasmania. The ALP lead on 2PP is 56.5% versus the Coalition’s 43.5%
Labor is hopeful of picking up two seats in the west, Hasluck and Burt.
In mid-May, according to Morgan, the numbers stood at 53% for the ALP and 47% for the Coalition.
Morgan puts the ALP only just in front on 50.5% and the Coalition is close on 49.5% but the unpopularity of the Mike Baird LNP Government at the state level may help Labor federally.
The Sunshine State is the only place where the Coalition leads 51% to 49 for Labor.
Labor holds the two ACT seats with a comfortable margin and will continue to do so. Australian Capital Territory