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‘The Turnbull Government is facing the prospect of losing 10 seats in NSW, six in Queensland and three in Western Australia, with a significant slump in support in the key election battlegrounds.’ 

The Australian headlined a 6% swing against the government according to its own Newspoll data on 30 May.

I wrote this piece the day before [Sunday 29 May], without seeing the Newspoll data. Then in Monday’s Fairfax papers we also saw confirmation that the coalition is in trouble. James Massola wrote that the LNP is likely to lose at least a dozen seats and maybe even more.

‘Political strategists for both major parties believe the Coalition is on track to lose about 12 seats at the July 2 poll, slashing Malcolm Turnbull’s buffer in the Parliament but returning his government with a reduced second-term majority.’ 

A state by state breakdown

According to Roy Morgan (16 May figures), the Coalition currently only has a very slim two-party preferred lead in one state, but the numbers appear to be all over the place.

Tasmania

There are three crucial seats in Tasmania and the ALP needs to win at least two of them to have any chance of winning nationally.

For example, Labor thinks 11 seats in Queensland are in play, but to others the margins in some seem insurmountable. For example, it would take an almost unachievable 6.7% swing to unseat Immigration Minister (and part-time potato model) Peter Dutton in Dickson. But some plucky voters have a strategy to help make it happen on polling day.

The ALP holds a substantial lead on a 2PP basis, 57.5% to the coalition’s 42.5%.The figures in Victoria seem to mirror what’s happening in Tasmania. The ALP lead on 2PP is 56.5% versus the Coalition’s 43.5%

Victoria

The figures in Victoria seem to mirror what’s happening in Tasmania. The ALP lead on 2PP is 56.5% versus the Coalition’s 43.5%

Western Australia

In 2013 the statewide swing in WA to the coaliton was notionally only 1.7%. The Morgan poll in mid-May indicated a swing back to Labor of 8.8%. This would be more than enough to secure a Labor victory

Two weeks into the campaign and Morgan has the ALP in front with 54% over the Coalition on 46%.

Labor is hopeful of picking up two seats in the west, Hasluck and Burt.

South Australia

In mid-May, according to Morgan, the numbers stood at 53% for the ALP and 47% for the Coalition.

New South Wales

Morgan puts the ALP only just in front on 50.5% and the Coalition is close on 49.5% but the unpopularity of the Mike Baird LNP Government at the state level may help Labor federally. 

Queensland

The Sunshine State is the only place where the Coalition leads 51% to 49 for Labor. 

Labor holds the two ACT seats with a comfortable margin and will continue to do so.  Australian Capital Territory 

Northern Territory

There are only two seats for the whole of the Northern Territory, Solomon which is based on the city of Darwin and Lingari which takes in the rest of the territory. Labor is hopeful of picking up Solomon, which it can do with a swing of just under 2%.  

src: independentaustralia.net