UK General Elections today can cause labour loose 100 seats, ICM Opinion Poll suggest Labour at 20% vs conservatives at 48% by May
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UK General Elections today can cause labour loose 100 seats, ICM Opinion Poll suggest Labour at 20% vs conservatives at 48% by May

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UK General Elections today can cause labour loose 100 seats, ICM Opinion Poll suggest Labour at 20% vs conservatives at 48% by May

Labour is on course to lose nearly 100 seats if Theresa May calls a snap general election next spring, a new opinion poll analysis has claimed.

Five members of Jeremy Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet, including Shadow Defence Secretary Clive Lewis, would be ousted from Westminster, the study by the ‘Saving Labour’ pressure group suggests.

The analysis, based on end-of month opinion polls published by ICM since Corbyn was elected last September, claims that if current trends continue then by next May Labour could fall as low as 20%, with the Tories 28 points ahead at 48%.

The figures suggest the Tories could have a majority of 201 – higher than Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997 – with Labour losing 99 seats in every part of the country. Labour’s sole MP in Scotland, Ian Murray would lose his seat to the SNP.

The figures are based on an analysis of recent ICM polls, and assume a 5% increase for the Conservative Party, a 7% decrease in the Labour Party share, a 1% increase in the Lib Dem share and 2% increase in UKIP’s vote.

ICM polls
Party Seats   
Tories  426 (+95)
Labour  133 (-99)
Liberal Democrats 10 (+2)
UKIP  2 (+1)

The final results, if there were a uniform swing, would leave the Tories on 426 seats (+95), Labour on 133 (-99), the Liberal Democrats on 10 (+2) and UKIP on 2 (+1).

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