NYT: We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results,US Opinion poll 2016,US Presidential Election survey Result

NYT: We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results,US Opinion poll 2016,US Presidential Election survey Result

You’ve heard of the “margin of error” in polling. Just about every article on a new poll dutifully notes that the margin of error due to sampling is plus or minus three or four percentage points.

But in truth, the “margin of sampling error” – basically, the chance that polling different people would have produced a different result – doesn't even come close to capturing the potential for error in surveys.

Polling results rely as much on the judgments of pollsters as on the science of survey methodology. Two good pollsters, both looking at the same underlying data, could come up with two very different results.

How so? Because pollsters make a series of decisions when designing their survey, from determining likely voters to adjusting their respondents to match the demographics of the electorate. These decisions are hard. They usually take place behind the scenes, and they can make a huge difference.

To illustrate this, we decided to conduct a little experiment. On Monday, in partnership with Siena College, the Upshot published a poll of 867 likely Florida voters. Our poll showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald J. Trump by one percentage point.

We decided to share our raw data with four well-respected pollsters and asked them to estimate the result of the poll themselves.

Here’s who joined our experiment:

• Charles Franklin, of the Marquette Law School Poll, a highly regarded public poll in Wisconsin.

• Patrick Ruffini, of Echelon Insights, a Republican data and polling firm.

• Margie OmeroRobert Green and Adam Rosenblatt, of Penn Schoen Berland Research, a Democratic polling and research firm that conducted surveys for Mrs. Clinton in 2008.

• Sam Corbett-DaviesAndrew Gelman and David Rothschild, of Stanford University, Columbia University and Microsoft Research. They’re at the forefront of using statistical modeling in survey research.

Here’s what they found:

Pollster Clinton Trump Margin
Charles Franklin 42% 39% Clinton +3%
Marquette Law      
Patrick Ruffini 39% 38% Clinton +1%
Echelon Insights      
Omero, Green, Rosenblatt 42% 38% Clinton +4%
Penn Schoen Berland Research      
Corbett-Davies, Gelman, Rothschild 40% 41% Trump +1%
Stanford University/Columbia University/Microsoft Research      
NYT Upshot/Siena College 41% 40% Clinton +1%

How to make the sample representative?

Pollsters usually make statistical adjustments to make sure that their sample represents the population – in this case, voters in Florida. They usually do so by giving more weight to respondents from underrepresented groups. But this is not so simple.

What source? Most public pollsters try to reach every type of adult at random and adjust their survey samples to match the demographic composition of adults in the census. Most campaign pollsters take surveys from lists of registered voters and adjust their sample to match information from the voter file.

Which variables? What types of characteristics should the pollster weight by? Race, sex and age are very standard. But what about region, party registration, education or past turnout?

How? There are subtly different ways to weight a survey. One of our participants doesn’t actually weight the survey in a traditional sense, but builds a statistical model to make inferences about all registered voters (the same technique that yields our pretty dot maps).

Who is a likely voter?

There are two basic ways that our participants selected likely voters:

Self-reported vote intention Public pollsters often use the self-reported vote intention of respondents to choose who is likely to vote and who is not.

Vote history Partisan pollsters often use voter file data on the past vote history of registered voters to decide who is likely to cast a ballot, since past turnout is a strong predictor of future turnout.

 

Opinion poll: Trump leads Clinton in latest (July 22-26) Reuters/Ipsos Poll, US opinion poll 2016,US election 2016

Opinion poll: Trump leads Clinton in latest (July 22-26) Reuters/Ipsos Poll, US opinion poll 2016,US election 2016

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump posted a two-point lead over his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Tuesday, the first time he has been ahead since early May.

July 22-26 Reuters/Ipsos Poll
Trump 39%
Clinton 37%
don’t support both candidates 24%

27 july

The July 22-26 poll found that 39% of likely voters supported Trump, 37% supported Clinton and 24% would vote for neither. The poll had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points, meaning that the two candidates should be considered about even in support.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English with about 962 likely voters.

 

US Presidential Election Florida Opinion Poll 2016 May: Gravis Marketing shows Clinton Ahead of Trump by 4 % Points, US Opinion poll 2016

Florida Poll: Latest US Opinion poll by Gravis
Marketing, Hillary Clinton ,
Donald Trump,US Opinion poll 2016

This Opinion Poll has been conducted by Gravis Marketing

Sample Size: 2542 registered Voters

Polling Methodoly: Telephonic interviews

Margin of Error +2.0% 

Time when Conducted – Between 17th – 18th May 2016. 

This Opinion Poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton lead by 4 points against Republican Trump in Florida 

They also revealed the unfavorable percentages of the 2 leaders in the state i.e for both Trump and Clinton.

Surely Trump has High Number of Unfavorable Ratings Compared to Clinton but still overall both the candidates have high unfavorable Ratings. See Latest poll by Newyork Times/CBS on Unfavorable Ratings of the Leaders

Poll source

Date administered

Democrat

 %

Republican

 %

Lead margin

Sample Size

Margin of error

Gravis Marketing

May 17–18, 2016

Hillary Clinton

46%

Donald Trump

42%

4

2,542

± 2%

 

 Clinton’s  figures indicated that 52 % of Florida registered voters currently have an unfavorable opinion, 40 % having a favorable opinion and 8 % unsure.

Hillary
Clinton

Opinion

 Registered voters

unfavorable

52%

favorable

40%

unsure

8%

 

 Trump’s figures indicated that 54 % of Florida registered voters currently have an unfavorable opinion, 38 % having a favorable opinion and 8 % unsure.

 

 

Donald
Trump

Opinion

 Registered voters

unfavorable

54%

favorable

38%

unsure

8%

Surely Trump has High Number of Unfavorable Ratings Compared to Clinton but still overall both the candidates have high unfavorable Ratings.

 

Reuters/Ipsos US latest opinion poll, Donald trump, Opinion Poll 2016, Republican Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Democratic latest opinion poll,US Election online survey polls, US Opinion poll 2016, US Presidential Elections 2016, US upcoming election

Reuters/Ipsos US latest opinion poll, Donald trump, Opinion Poll 2016, Republican Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Democratic latest opinion poll,US Election online survey polls, US Opinion poll 2016, US Presidential Elections 2016, US upcoming election 

The recent polls released by Reuters/ipsos puts both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton at an almost level fight for the presidential race. The poll result predicted 41% support for the Hillary and 40% for the Trump, while 19% remain undecided. The survey of 1,289 people was done over five days and has a credibility interval of 3 percentage points.

Reuters/Ipsos US latest opinion poll

Trump 

41%

Clinton 

40%

Undecided

19%

 

The results show a rise in the number of voters supporting Trump. An earlier poll conducted by Reuters/ipsos on May 4 had former secretary of state at 48% and the business-mogul at 35%. 

Donald trump has already become presumptive Republican nominee after the Texas Senator, Ted Cruz, opted out of the race. And Hillary Clinton is still fighting the Vermont Senator, Bernie Sanders for Democratic nomination. But it is more likely that Hillary would be the Democratic nominee as she is running well ahead. 

While much can change in six months before the Nov 8 elections still the increased support for Trump is a red flag for the Clinton’s campaign. 

However, Trump has his own problems ahead. Many of the Senior Republican leaders – including House of Representative speaker Paul Ryan – are withholding their support and Trump is struggling to bring them behind his campaign.

Looking at the voters of respective parties both Trump and Clinton are doing well, but independent voters continue to express uncertainty about who they will vote, with 38% in the Reuters/ipsos poll said they are unsure about whom they will vote or they will vote for someone else.

The primary season is near to end and both the likely party nominees have started to attack each other both on policy and personality. Recently, at a rally in New Jersey, Clinton took aim at Trump’s Tax reform plan.

“Trump – who has promised to make Mexico pay for a border wall to stop illegal immigration and called for a temporary ban on Muslims – could face an opposition among minorities”, said Political Science Professor Larry Sabato of University of Virginia. “This election would be determined as much by demographic composition of American electorate as anything else” he further added. 

Also the concern of Clinton has not ended as the recent loss in West Virginia Democratic primary has signaled a trouble for her in future. West Virginia has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. About six in ten voters of West Virginia said they are worried about the direction of the US economy in the next few years, according to a recent preliminary ABC News exit poll.

US presidential election Opinion Poll 2016 Election Survey results, Who will win in US polls, US Exit poll, US Election Issues, US Party Wise opinion poll, pre poll survey,Democratic Republican Opinion poll results

US presidential elections, US Election Opinion Poll, US Opinion poll results 2016, Who will win in US polls, US Election Survey Result, US Exit poll, US Election Issues, US Party Wise opinion poll, Opinion polls, pre poll survey,Democratic, Republican Opinion poll results

rp_US-OPINION-POLL-IMG.png

This page lists nationwide US Presidential election Opinion Poll 2016 that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election between prospective Democratic and Republican candidates. Following Polls have been listed in reverse Choronological Order.

The Polls conducted nationwide is mainly betwen Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Now when it is clear that they both are the Presidential Contenders from the 2 prominent Parties. Although National Convention is still awaited, though that remains a formality after both have acquired required number of delegates.

Nationwide US opinion poll summary (Last Updated: 05 November 2016)

Source: RealClearPolitics.com

For Presidential elections Following are the latest averages – showing Hillary clinton winning.

Election 2016 Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Poll Average 46.6 44.8 Clinton +1.8
4-Way RCP Average 45.0 42.7 Clinton +2.3
Favorability Ratings -13.8 -19.2 Clinton +5.4
Live Betting Odds 74.4 25.2  

  For Presidential elections, Electoral College, Following are the latest averages – showing Hillary clinton winning.

Electoral College Clinton Trump Spread
RCP Electoral Map 216 164 Clinton +52
No Toss Up States 297 241  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Polling Data (LAST UPDATED 02 Nov 2016)
Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/22 – 10/31 47.5 45.3 Clinton +2.2
LA Times/USC Tracking 10/25 – 10/31 3145 LV 4.5 43 47 Trump +4
ABC/Wash Post Tracking 10/27 – 10/30 1128 LV 3 48 47 Clinton +1
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/26 – 10/31 1018 LV 3.3 45 44 Clinton +1
NBC News/SM 10/24 – 10/30 40816 LV 1 51 44 Clinton +7
Economist/YouGov 10/22 – 10/26 1209 LV 3.3 49 46 Clinton +3
FOX News 10/22 – 10/25 1221 LV 2.5 49 44 Clinton +5

Nationwide US opinion poll summary (Last Updated: 30th October 2016)

 

 

 

 

 

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 46, Trump 45, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +1
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 49, Trump 46 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 46 Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Clinton +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 45, Trump 41 Clinton +4
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NY Times/Siena Trump 46, Clinton 42, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Trump +4
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC/WSJ/Marist Trump 44, Clinton 45, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +1
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Trump 47, Clinton 48, Johnson 1, Stein 0 Clinton +1
Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CBS News/YouGov Clinton 42, Trump 39, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +3
Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CBS News/YouGov Clinton 42, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Trump +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 8 Clinton +6
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson Gravis* Clinton 49, Trump 47, Johnson 1 Clinton +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson CBS News/YouGov Clinton 48, Trump 45, Johnson 3 Clinton +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CBS News/YouGov Clinton 48, Trump 40, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +8
Louisiana: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein University of New Orleans Trump 49, Clinton 35, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Trump +14
Maine: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Press Herald/UNH Clinton 48, Trump 37, Johnson 5, Stein 3 Clinton +11
Maine CD2: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Press Herald/UNH Trump 40, Clinton 43, Johnson 6, Stein 4 Clinton +3
Maine CD1: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Press Herald/UNH Clinton 54, Trump 34, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +20
Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin Salt Lake Tribune/Dan Jones Trump 32, McMullin 30, Clinton 24, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Trump +2

** Hillary Clinton leads by 11 points in 4 way Race according to NBC/WSJ Poll

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clinton 48%
Trump 37%
Jhonson 7%
Stein 2%
Nationwide US opinion poll summary (Last Updated: 19th October 2016)
Race Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 44 Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Bloomberg Clinton 47, Trump 38, Johnson 8, Stein 3 Clinton +9
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson SurveyUSA Clinton 46, Trump 44, Johnson 6 Clinton +2

US Presidential election Opinion Poll 2016

Latest US Presidential polls 

  1. 05 Nov : ​Clinton Leads Trump by 5 Points:Reuters/Ipsos Latest Opinion poll 2016
  2. 03 Nov : CNN / ORC polls: Trump strong in Nevada, Clinton rise in Florida
  3. 02 Nov :Trump ahead of Clinton in latest November poll
  4. 22 Aug: Reuters/Ipsos poll August 14-18: Clinton leads rival Trump by 8 points
  5. Clinton widened her lead over trump in crucial states: Poll, Wall Street Journal/NBC News/ Marist Opinion Poll
  6. Texas opinion poll, KTVT-TV (Channel 11)/Dixie Strategies Poll
  7. New poll shows Clinton beating Trump in eastern Kansas
  8. 27 July: Opinion poll: Trump leads Clinton in latest (July 22-26) Reuters/Ipsos Poll
  9. 23 July: 
  10. 23 July: 
  11. 21 July: Clinton up 7 points nationally on trump Reuters/Ipsos national poll
  12. 13 July: Clinton leads trump to 3 points,NBC News/Survey Monkey opinion poll 
  13. 13 July: Clinton leads trump to 13 points,July Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll
  14. 13 July: Monmouth University Opinion poll Trump leads Clinton by 2 points
  15. 9 July: Latest Rasmussen weekly presidential poll
  16. 6 July: July latest Reuters/Ipsos poll
  17. 5 July: Latest Poll by USA Today Suffolk University Hillary Clinton ahead of trump 
  18. 27 June: US Elections: Clinton ahead of Trump polls show, Washington Post-ABC News poll, 
  19. 8 June: Trump trails Clinton by 10 points: Reuters/Ipsos poll. Read More here
  20. 27 May: Latest US Opinion poll Monmouth University found that 38 percent of registered voters support Mrs. Clinton and 34 percent back Mr. Trump. May 23–27 2016 Read More here
  21. 29 May: NBC/Wall Street Journal poll US Election Opinion Poll Shows Clinton at 46% and Trump at 43% . Published on May 29. Read More here
  22. 26 May: RealClearPolitics calculated the avergaes of all National Polls and showed that Trump is now 0.2 percentage points ahead of Clinton. Read More
  23. Date :  Dec 2015 Monmouth University Opinion Poll, New National Us Election Opinion Poll
  24. Date :  Dec 2015 CNN Poll Of Polls Us Election Opinion Poll
  25. Date :  Dec 2015 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
  26. Date :  Dec 2015 Nbc/Wall Street Journal Poll Us Election Opinion Poll