Impact of Corona Virus on economy across the globe
"The COVID-19 pandemic is having a catastrophic effect on working hours and earnings, globally.
Goldman Sachs now forecasts that India’s real GDP growth could fall to 1.6 percent in FY21 compared to its earlier projection of 3.3 percent.
The International Labor Organization said this week that more than 1 billion workers are at high risk of a pay cut or losing their job.
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected supply chains and disrupted manufacturing operations around the world. It noted that the pharmaceutical industry is facing shortages in the supply of raw materials.
A looming economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic is a chance for India to enact sweeping reforms to fix ailing sectors and attract more foreign investment to the country.
India is facing its biggest crisis in decades, with a three-week lockdown in a nation of 1.3 billion people likely to result in an economic recession, millions of job losses and possible starvation among the poor.
In Germany, new-car registrations in March-usually a peak month-plunged 38% from a year earlier, and a reading in the U.K. tanked 44%. Three of the biggest Arab economies buckled, a services index in Brazil was the lowest since 2016 and vehicle sales in South Africa slid 30%.
In Australia, which has dodged recession for three decades, job advertisements plummeted by the most since 2009.
Companies including Airbus SE in Europe and FedEx Corp. in the U.S. have cautioned in recent days that it’s too early to estimate the length of the slump or assess the damage displaying a level of uncertainty that stretches into supplier networks of small firms, often located in rural areas and developing economies.
More than 10 million Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last month, and the International Labour Organization warned almost 25 million jobs will be lost if the virus isn’t quickly contained.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) in its report titled 'ILO Monitor 2nd edition: COVID-19 and the world of work', describes coronavirus pandemic as "the worst global crisis since World War II".
Some regions, particularly Africa, have higher levels of informality, which combined with a lack of social protection, high population density and weak capacity, pose severe health and economic challenges for governments.
Who will Rise as Super Power?
India is in a relatively good position to withstand the hurricane about to strike defaulting and other emerging markets. Its current account deficit is very low and may go to zero because of the crash in oil prices (which may, however, be offset partly by a decline in remittances from the Gulf).
Inflation is under control, save for vegetable prices. The fiscal deficit is going to shoot up, but that is happening across the world and is not causing inflation.
Much focus will fall on China, whose economy is returning toward full capacity. Its rate of surveyed urban unemployment jumped to a record 6.2% in February as business shut down.
The world economy will go into recession this year with a predicted loss of trillions of dollars of global income due to the coronavirus pandemic, spelling serious trouble for developing countries with the likely exception of India and China.